India's dependency on Russia for Defence projects: Amidst Trump Tariffs and rising Geopolitical tensions

The Russian President Vladimir Putin’s visit to India on December 5 stands pivotal in a time where India faces severe backlash from the U.S., especially under the second term of President Donald Trump. These increasing tensions between India and the U.S. have a significant impact on the India-Russia defence relations, which have been prevalent and significant for both countries since the Soviet Era, as evidenced by a 1986 CIA assessment that claimed that 65% of India’s combat aircrafts, 40% of its tanks, and 70% of its warships originated from the Soviet Union at that time. The recent shift of the Western nations towards protectionist policies coupled with the consequences of the Russia’s war with Ukraine, together imply a major stress on the trade and defence relations and related projects between India and Russia. This is significant for India, which is navigating through a hostile environment due to its neighbours.

Indo-Russia Defence Relations

Russia's defence exports hold a major significance in India's military arsenal. While figures have diluted between 2010 and 2024 from a humongous 72% to 36%, Russia still plays a significant role. This defence relationship is of mutual significance, evident from the data provided by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, which highlighted Russia's defence exports to India between 2020-2024 being worth more than 38% of its total global exports. These also include the S-400 air defence systems, used in India's recent confrontation against Pakistan, under a 5.4-billion-dollar deal signed in 2018. Russia also provides India with Sukhoi Su-30 MKIs and T-90 tanks, which contribute immensely to India's strength.

However, recent geopolitical tensions faced by both countries have disrupted this exchange. While India, due to the frequent skirmishes with its neighbours in the recent past, has been looking towards more advanced equipment, the battle with Ukraine, which has now entered its fourth year, has reduced Russia’s capability to export arms by 64% since 2015, causing India to shift to alternatives like France and Israel. The spare parts for the equipment originating from Russia have also plummeted by 30% in 2024.

Trump Tariffs and International Criticism

The tariffs levied by Trump in August 2025, worth an extra 25%, to penalise India for importing Russia's post-sanctions discounted crude oil (which had reached 1.5 million barrels per day), while aimed at the energy exchanges, have further afflicted the defence relations between the two countries. According to the U.S. officials, India's defence trade with Russia feeds the atrocities committed in Ukraine.

While India and Russia retaliate against these tariffs, stating how the U.S. imports enriched uranium from Russia as well, the looming threat of the CAATSA sanctions, a manifestation of the Western disagreement, deems the current environment uncertain for trade.

The Way Forward

However, there is scope for an efficacious relationship between the two countries, regardless of the sanctions levied by the West, reflected through this Indo-Russia summit, which ensures fostering a special and privileged bond between the two countries, aiming at the 100-billion-dollar trade milestone by 2030. The discussions also encompass the new Su-57 Stealth Jets, which act as a deterrent to the F-35s, an upgraded air defence system with S-500s, and localisation of the AK-203.

These circumstances demand firmness, as over-dependency on Russia can threaten relations with the U.S. India’s diplomacy of dual alignments, evident in its simultaneous acts of deepening U.S.-Quad relations and conducting military exercises like INDRA, showcases India’s aim at establishing its own strategic autonomy with Russia. India also promotes its domestic production under the Atmanirbhar Bharat project, which is reflected in the exponential rise of its domestic defence production, which reached 1.27 lakh crore rupees for the fiscal year 2024.

With a politically hostile environment in its neighbourhood, coupled with continuous skirmishes with Pakistan and the growing assertiveness of China, India now has to look towards methods to balance the two Giant superpowers, as it faces an imminent risk where any move towards one of the sides can be perceived as a potential betrayal by the other.

BY BHASKAR JHA

THE INDIAN NETIZENS

References

Pandey, V., Rosberg, S.(2025, December 4). Oil, defence and geopolitics: Why Putin is visiting Modi in Delhi. BBC News. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cj4q2vpggr9o 

Center for Strategic and International Studies. (2025). Guns and oil: Continuity and change in Russia-India relations. https://www.csis.org/analysis/guns-and-oil-continuity-and-change-russia-india-relations.

Royal United Services Institute. (2025). India's diplomacy of dual alignments: Russia and the US. https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/indias-diplomacy-dual-alignments-russia-and-us

Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. (2025). Trends in international arms transfers, 2024. https://www.sipri.org/publications/2025/sipri-yearbook-2025

Ministry of External Affairs, Government of India. (2025, December 5). Joint statement following the 23rd India-Russia annual summit. https://www.mea.gov.in/bilateral-documents.htm?dtl/40410

Ministry of External Affairs, Government of India. (2025, December 5). Transcript of special briefing by MEA on the state visit of the President of Russia to India. https://www.mea.gov.in/media-briefings.htm?dtl/40411/Transcript_of_Special_briefing_by_MEA_on_the_State_Visit_of_the_President_of_Russia_to_India_December_05_2025

Ministry of External Affairs, Government of India. (2025). Brief on India-Russia relations [PDF]. https://www.mea.gov.in/Portal/ForeignRelation/IndiaRussia25new.pdf