An Unstable Philippines take ASEAN Chairmanship amidst Domestic Turmoil and Chinese Assertion

By The Indian Netizens

An eventful Malaysian ASEAN chairmanship comes to an end as the Philippines prepares to take the mantle, amidst straining domestic and international complexities. Ferdinand Marcos Jr. prepares to save his throne as he finds imminent threats both outside and within the borders. A tumultuous Southeast Asian Region and a threatened Philippines, thus, leave ASEAN hanging in the balance.

ASEAN 2026 Agenda and Reflections

The theme of the year 2026 is “Navigating Our Future Together”, focusing on a few pivotal domains with a primary focus on creating a more stable environment in the Southeast Asian region, focusing on maritime security, with an attempt towards creating a uniform Code of Conduct for the South China Sea, which has often acted as a theatre for critical confrontation. The upcoming ASEAN year will also focus on non-traditional threats like cyber-crimes, bearing in mind the recent voice-phishing pig butchering scam compound scandal exposed in Cambodia.

Philippines also intends to integrate a broader economic cohesion through expanding trade and investment routes, encouraging micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs), while also ensuring a sustainable approach, aligning with the changes planned by EU (through directives like CSDDD, CBAM, CSRD, etc.), which is one of the largest trading partners of ASEAN.

People’s empowerment, focusing on social and cultural paradigms, working towards upliftment of the marginalized, providing better healthcare, education, and food provisions, is also making it on the agenda. This remains critical to the ASEAN countries due to the deteriorating conditions evident in countries like Myanmar, Post-2021 Coup, Thailand, and Cambodia, based on the recent skirmishes, even the Philippines, alongside Indonesia, which are accused of extrajudicial killings and arbitrary arrests by Amnesty International recently.

However, with the current political and strategically compromising international situation that the Philippines faces, ASEAN might have to brace for a turbulent phase as its democratic approach of decision-making and efforts to maintain centrality go through a test. Moreover, a failure to come to a consensus and swift action to mitigate the hostility prevalent in various parts of the region might also question ASEAN’s assertiveness and credibility.

The Domestic Chaos in the Philippines

The turmoil in the Philippines stems from a rivalry and difference of ideologies between two dominant political families, namely, the Duterte and Marcos families. Sara Duterte (Daughter of Former President Rodrigo Duterte) and Ferdinand ‘Bongbong’ Marcos Jr. (Son of Former President Ferdinand Marcos) stood together for the 2022 elections, showing a collaborative effort to prioritise national interest, leading to a landslide victory with strong promise and optimism in the nation.

However, with the resignation of Sara Duterte from the cabinet in June 2024 due to disagreements in the approach taken to tackle the confrontation in the South China Sea region reflected cracks in the coalition were reflected. Ferdinand Marcos Jr. intended to ally with the United States of America, evident by his signing of the Enhanced Defence Cooperation Agreement, reopening Subic Bay to the U.S., and placing missile launchers on Luzon Island. Sara Duterte decided to follow the family tradition, proposing a neutral approach to improve relations with China, criticising the increasing US interference.

What started with bitter allegations in 2024 turned into a catastrophe with Sara Duterte’s (Vice President of the Philippines) announcement of having assassins instructed to hunt President Marcos, his first lady, and the speaker of the house in case she is killed. The statement led to an ask for impeachment proceedings, dodged by Sara through employing different political manoeuvres. This was followed by the arrest of Rodrigo Duterte by the ICC on corruption charges, which led to protests against the government, leaving the Marcos Government feeble.

China on a turf with the Philippines

A divided leadership in the Philippines, coupled with China’s invigorating actions in the South China Sea region, worsens the situation for the Philippines.

China has claimed a major chunk of the South China Sea region under its 9-Dash Line policy which puts it on the turf with the Philippines. The rivalry has intensified in the last decade with the Scarborough Shoal incident, followed by an arbitration case in the Permanent Court of Arbitration in 2013, which ruled in favour of the Philippines, invalidating China’s claims.

While the following years showed a de-escalation as Duterte worked towards improving ties with China, the arrival of Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has intensified China’s activity in the South China Sea region. The last two years have seen a string of grey-zone tactics employed by China, with the Second Thomas Shoal incident in June 2024, where the Chinese Coast Guard interfered with a Philippine Resupply mission, boarding the boat and destroying the equipment. The Philippines decided against the enforcement of the 1951 Mutual Defence Treaty and instead had an agreement with China in July 2024. However, there were several incidents even after the agreement, like the August 10 dropping of flares by Chinese Jets in the path of Philippine Planes near the Scarborough Shoal and a collision nine days later between the Chinese and Philippine coast guard near Sabina Shoal.

China’s grey zone tactics only increased in 2025, evident in its deployment of two H-6 bombers near the Scarborough Shoal on March 28. This was followed by two Chinese vessels ramming into each other near the Scarborough Shoal as one of them tried to chase a Filipino vessel in August. The Chinese Coast Guard also fired water cannons at Filipino vessels near Scarborough Shoal in September 2025 and near Thitu Island in October.

Philippines continues to face a hostile Chinese assertion in the region, with the most recent confrontation being in mid-December, where Manila accuses China of shooting water cannons near Sabina Shoal, causing casualties, while the Chinese Coast Guard claims that Manila is distorting the facts, and that the responses would continue if provoked further.

The Chaotic Standpoint for the Philippines and The Way Forward

With elections approaching in 2028, Marcos’ continuous stress on China’s assertiveness in the South China Sea region in the last four years leaves him no choice but to act firmly, which is highly unlikely due to the differences in the cabinet. This leaves ASEAN as the only platform where Marcos Jr. can make a difference, evident in the agendas set for the calendar year 2026 (the attempt at creating a uniform Code of Conduct).

However, The ASEAN policy of Neutrality and Non-alignment, with aims at keeping South-East Asia free from the influence of any power rivalry, creating a zone of “Peace, freedom and Neutrality (ZOPFAN) restrict Philippines from basing its functioning on personal agendas and mitigating the dominance shown by China in the region, forcing it to divert its attention to other pressing issues like elections in Myanmar, maintaining the ceasefire of Thailand and Cambodia and tackle non-traditional transnational crimes like the one occurring the pig butchering compounds of Cambodia.

Moreover, China is also ASEAN’s largest trading partner (projected to go over US$1 trillion in 2025). The ASEAN-China Free Trade Agreement with FTA 3.0, signed in 2025, diversifies trade even more. China has also made major investments in ASEAN, ranging from sectors like Energy (green energy projects, renewable energy infrastructure, etc.) to Transport (China-Laos Railway, Jakarta-Bandung High Speed Railway) in the name of the Belt and Road Initiative. However, the Belt and Road Initiative has also caused debt distress to countries like Laos, Cambodia, Malaysia, and Indonesia, strengthening China’s influence over them. These factors also split the ASEAN vote, preventing the Philippines from taking strict measures against China even after continuous confrontations.

This leaves the Code of Conduct for the South China Sea region as the only path that the Philippines can take to tackle the gridlock it faces. However, this might also act as a double-edged sword because a firm implementation of the code will invite allegations of ASEAN’s mandate getting swayed by personal agendas and the global power struggle, while a failure at establishing it can point towards China’s dominance and ASEAN’s ineffectiveness. This can have implications for an already weakened Marcos Jr.’s reign as well, leading to more instability. 

BY BHASKAR JHA

THE INDIAN NETIZENS